Some experts, scholars and (former) politicians think that the West should start peace talks with Russia and reach some sort of deal. In my opinion, this is a bad idea. First, Ukraine should decide if they want to negotiate with Russia, and not the West. Second, Russia cannot be contained or stopped with agreements, but only with power. I will use some historical facts to explain this.

On this day in 1932 the Soviet Union and Finland signed a non-aggression pact, which you can see on the picture. This meant that they would not attack each other. On the 26th of November 1939, the Soviet Union shelled their own border town and blamed Finland for it. According to the non-aggression pact, an independent committee should investigate the affair. The Soviet Union rejected this, renounced the pact and invaded Finland 2 days later.

Later in 1932, the Soviet Union and Poland signed a non-aggression pact. This pact was also broken by the Soviet Union in 1939 when they invaded Poland after they had signed a secret pact with Nazi Germany.

In 1994 Russia and Ukraine signed the Budapest memorandum. Ukraine would give up its nuclear weapons (3rd most in world by then) in exchange for security guarantees. Russia would respect Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity. With their illegal occupation and annexation of Crimea in 2014, the illegal occupation of Donbas and their invasion in 2022, Russia broke this agreement.

We can find more examples in history, but the pattern is clear. When Russia signs an international treaty, it does not mean anything. So why would Ukraine agree to a peace deal now?

The only way to stop Russia is with power and force, and not with words on paper. Therefore, it is important that the West gives enough weapons to Ukraine to win the war, and not just enough weapons to not lose the war.

When all Russian soldiers leave Ukrainian soil, it is time to talk, end this war and make sure that Russia will not invade again by providing real security to Ukraine, and not some guarantees on paper. 

Originally posted on Instagram on January 21, 2023